Alan Truex: Boston not as strong as its record; Houston has fewer problems, looks at Ramos
HOUSTON — At baseball’s All-Star Break the three strongest teams are in the American League. And the Vegas favorites to win the World Series are the omnipresent New York Yankees, at 7/2. Close behind: defending-champion Houston Astros at 4/1.
The bargain here may be the Boston Red Sox at 7/1. They’re the hottest team, winning 12 of 13 games entering the break, and they have the best record in baseball: 68-30 to 64-35 for Houston and 62-33 for the Yanks.
The Astros have not lost much glow from the 2017 postseason. Their pitching is better than ever. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton are on the All-Star team. Lance McCullers, who’s not, is 10-4. Dallas Keuchel is showing 2015 vintage (4-0, 2.17 ERA over his past 6 starts) and Ken Giles was shown the door.
Even with one of their greatest talents, the error-proof shortstop Carlos Correa, out with a nonsurgical back injury, the Astros kept winning: 12-7 in his absence. In the season run differential, Houston leads, at +188, followed by Boston +163, New York +131 and Chicago Cubs +114.
More significant: Looking to the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31, the Astros have fewer weaknesses than the other teams. In another week Correa rejoins the sport’s finest infield, between reigning MVP Jose Altuve at second base and another All-Star, Alex Bregman at third. First baseman Yuli Gurriel is MLB’s best clutch hitter: .450 with runners in scoring range.
Newsflash: The Yankees desperately need starting pitchers.
Jordan Montgomery is lost to Tommy John surgery and Jonathan Loaisiga to shoulder tendinitis. Domingo German and Sonny Gray are just, well, lost, with their five-something earned-run averages.
They have an All-Star, Luis Severino, heading their rotation. But Boston and Houston can match aces with, respectively, Chris Sale and Verlander, though the latter has sagged lately — 3.99 ERA and 2-3 record in his past 9 starts.
New York, Boston and Houston all have stout bullpens. The Yankees’ would be the best if not for the knee tendinitis of closer Aroldis Chapman, who’s 25 of 26 on save conversions. He missed the All-Star Game, and manager Aaron Boone said he could go to 10-day disability at any time.
The Astros would like a more emphatic closer than Hector Rondon, who briefly held the job for the Cubs in 2016 before they rented Chapman. Rondon was Houston’s fallback position following the mechanical and emotional breakdown of Giles, who’s trying to regain equilibrium in Fresno. He will have another chance in MLB, but not here. It’s one thing to burn your bridges, another thing to F-bomb them.
Rondon, 30, is better than expected (1.57 ERA), and there may not be a better investment available on the market. The Astros liked Zach Britton but backed off when the pitcher admitted he’s not as strong as he was before rupturing an Achilles. Too much atrophy of muscle in his lower legs.
I think the Astros should settle on the pitching they have, with 22-year-old lefthander Cionel Perez throwing 97 mph being a nice callup to replace Giles in the ‘pen. What they need: a catcher and a left fielder.
There are always left fielders to be found – no shortage of players with average pop, weak arm and no range in the field.
The Astros find themselves curiously bereft at this undemanding position. Jake Marisnick is mired in a lifelong batting slump; Tony Kemp is an efficient 5-foot-6 but otherwise not Jose Altuve. Kyle Tucker is overmatched at age 21.
Marwin Gonzalez has started in left for much of last season and this one, but his hitting has tailed off (.230). He’s more useful as an all-positions infielder. Basically the Astros have four No. 4 outfielders, no No. 3.
Catcher Brian McCann returns soon from arthroscopic knee repair. But he’s 34 and was fading before the injury, hitting .206 with 5 homers in 50 games.
Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow had every reason to pursue Wilson Ramos, whose rights are owned by Tampa Bay until the end of the season. He was voted into the starting lineup for Tuesday’s All-Star Game in Washington, but he strained his left hamstring Saturday and is now on disability leave.
That should not stop the Astros. They can afford to give him a month or longer to heal the hammy, which is an especially troubling injury for a catcher doing his squats. Perhaps this injury will discourage competitors in the Wilson Ramos Derby. Washington, .500 at the break, has much more urgency. Can’t wait on Ramos, right?
The Red Sox, who last year lost a 7-game ALCS to Houston, also are interested in Ramos, whose $10.5 million salary means about a $4.5 million rental. Their catcher, Sandy Leon, is defensively sound but offensively challenged, batting .242, slugging .369. At 29, unlikely to improve.
Boston is hot thanks mostly to one of the best pairs of hitters in baseball history: Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez may split the Triple Crown. But the Sox have more holes in the lineup than Leon.
Jackie Bradley Jr. runs and throws so well in centerfield that the Sox accept offensive numbers that are, frankly, Marisnick: .210 BA, 6 home runs.
At third base, 21-year-old Rafael Devers has looked at times like a rising star. But he’s on the 10-day disabled list with a sore shoulder that’s hampered his swing for a month and has cost him range in the field.
His lingering injury, .241 BA and 19 errors sent Sox prez Dave Dombrowski to the auction for Baltimore’s Manny Machado. But though he may be the best position player ever dealt at deadline, Machado is not a good match with a Boston organization that has no farm surplus.
Nor are the Yankees into Machado madness. His favored positions, shortstop and third, are New York strengths. Didi Gregorius, 28, is .800 OPS and has superior metrics as a shortstop. Third baseman Miguel Andujar, 23, OPS of .805, is not polished defensively, perhaps not ready for the World Series. But GM Brian Cashman does not want to shove talent like this to the bench and worry about undermining the youngster’s confidence.
Expect Cashman to trade for a No. 3 starting pitcher, like Tampa Bay’s Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 3.35 ERA in 8 starts and is owed only $1 million in contractual obligations. He may be the best value on the market. Eovaldi, 28, has more upside, even near-term, than 34-year-old Cole Hamels. And I can’t take the Jacob deGrom rumors seriously.
Cashman is the best there is at deadline magic. He will improve his team, probably in ways that haven’t been discussed. The Red Sox will make some moves in the margins. But at this particular midpoint the Astros have the advantage. Wilson Ramos on short-term disability may be all they need.