Alan Truex’s Bold Predictions: Pittsburgh Steelers will win the Super Bowl
A month ago I considered the Pittsburgh Steelers a longshot to win the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots had one of their most solid teams ever, while the Steelers looked below average at tight end, outside linebacker, strong safety and cornerback.
Too many flaws to be a world champion. But they look very different now.
They have one of the NFL’s fastest tight ends, Vance McDonald. The San Francisco 49ers a year ago regarded him as one of their few keepers, having just signed him to a 5-year contract for $35 million.
But now, with a new front office and a new coaching staff, they think differently. They think McDonald should block better, considering he’s 6-4, 265 pounds.
The Steelers are thinking he may be more motivated leaving one of the saddest football franchises and joining one of the most steeped in tradition.
Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert didn’t have to do much, just swap middle draft picks, giving up a No. 4 in exchange for a No 5. It seems a meager price for an established NFL starter, entering his physical prime at 27.
For the 49ers it was a salary dump, unloading a good player who’s possibly overpaid but is perhaps a bargain to a team that’s just two or three pieces short.
The Steelers have a supernova nucleus that’s unrivaled: quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, receiver Anthony Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell. And now Colbert is adding some expensive pieces that are not just decoration.
The Steelers’ most frustrating weakness last year was the secondary, but now Colbert has acquired one of the game’s most respected cornerbacks, Joe Haden, and a rising strong safety, J.J. Wilcox.
Last season Wilcox was the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 3 safety, a hard-hitting ballhawk who would seem to be welcome anywhere. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed him as a 26-year-old free agent in the off-season but did not want to pay starter’s bucks after they acquired Pro Bowl safety T.J. Ward.
So it was a buyer’s market for safeties, and Colbert found himself an upgrade over Sean Davis.
There was another missing piece: outside linebacker, where James Harrison is no longer ageless. He’s 39, playing like he’s, well, 36. The Steelers needed young and better, which is why they drafted J.J. Watt’s brother with their first-round pick in the April draft. T.J. in the preseason showed the high-powered pass rush that must be part of the Watt DNA.
A month ago the Steelers looked old and faded, but now they look rejuvenated.
Meanwhile, the Patriots lost Tom Brady’s favorite receiver, Julian Edelman, who’s not easily replaced. Whenever the quarterback was under pressure, Edelman could work his way open for the pass. Nobody is as good on underneath routes.
So I see the Patriots perhaps a bit over the peak – and I’m not even getting into the odds on 40-year-old Tom Brady going unhurt for the season.
And even if the Steelers are not quite the equal of the Patriots on paper, the schedule favors Pittsburgh. The Steelers face six teams that had winning records in 2016. The Pats face nine of those kind.
Pittsburgh and New England will play each other on Dec. 17. In Pittsburgh. That’s right, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Pittsburgh.
Five other Bold Predictions:
- Ezekiel Elliott misses one game for domestic violence
In a legal sense, the NFL’s case against the Dallas Cowboys star running back has fallen apart. But there are enough flaws in his behavior – and enough video — to justify a suspension of at least one game. Anything less than that and the league will be assailed for condoning abuse of women.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars hire Colin Kaepernick
They came pretty close. The team’s owner, Shahid Khan, said he “absolutely” would approve the signing of the anthem-snubbing quarterback if his “football people” approve.
How many more weeks of watching Blake Bortles will it take before Tom Coughlin and the football people come to their senses?
- The Cleveland Browns will finish second in the AFC North
The Browns were the worst team in the league last year, and this year they will rise to almost average. I see them winning seven games.
Significant roster upgrades include offensive linemen Kevin Zeitler and J.C. Trutter, safety Calvin Pyror and two plums from the first round of the draft: defensive end Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall, and safety Jabrill Peppers, a star of the preseason.
It’s not just that the Browns are getting better, but also that the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are getting worse, with both the coaches, Jim Harbaugh and Marvin Lewis, on very hot seats.
- Russell Wilson will be Most Valuable Player
Aaron Rodgers will deserve the award, but his Green Bay Packers are likely to fall short of greatness, while Wilson’s Seattle Seahawks look like the best team in the NFC.
The Seahawks have improved their offensive and defensive lines, whereas the Packers have not.
As for Wilson himself, he is chafing under criticism from Richard Sherman and other teammates that he’s not a terrific guy. So he has worked himself into better physical condition, and he will be a better leader this season. He will put up numbers almost as good as Rodgers, and perhaps better than Ben Roethlisberger.
- Christian McCaffrey is Offensive Rookie of the Year
Not the boldest of picks, but hey, it’s not like he was one of the top five in the draft. The problem with McCaffrey – and the reason he went No. 8 overall – is his slight build – 5-11, 202 pounds.
But with a power-running lead back, Jonathan Stewart, and a power-running quarterback, Cam Newton, the Carolina Panthers will use McCaffrey as a speedy change of pace who will be effective running the ball and catching it.